The United States depends on Canadian electricity far more than many Americans realize, and that dependency is now under threat. As a result of the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies—coined the “Trump Tariffs”—several Canadian provinces have signaled that they may be forced to reconsider their energy exports. If they were to pull the plug overnight, tens of millions of Americans could find themselves in the dark, exposing just how deeply interconnected the North American power grid is.
Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro, and BC Hydro are among the biggest exporters of electricity to the U.S., with power flowing across international transmission lines into major markets like New York, New England, and the Midwest. The supply agreements are based on long-term contracts, but the reality of power trading means that even short-term interruptions could create chaos. Canada accounts for about 1.5% of total U.S. electricity consumption, but in certain states, particularly in the Northeast and the Upper Midwest, Canadian energy makes up a far greater portion.
If provinces like Québec or Manitoba decided to cut the flow, the immediate impact would be felt in states that rely on Canadian hydropower to stabilize their grids. The New England region, which depends on Canadian imports for about 17% of its electricity, could see price spikes and brownouts as local utilities scramble to compensate. In Minnesota, where Manitoba Hydro is a critical supplier, rolling blackouts could become a reality. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which manage these grid networks, would have to activate emergency reserves and ramp up production from domestic sources—most likely coal and natural gas, which would not only be more expensive but also have serious environmental consequences.
This scenario is not just theoretical. Previous disputes over power pricing and trade agreements have led to tensions, and with the current U.S. administration’s increasingly hostile stance toward Canadian exports, energy providers in Canada are beginning to question whether supplying American consumers is still in their best interest. The Trump Tariffs have placed heavy restrictions on various Canadian industries, from aluminum to timber, and electricity providers may see no incentive to continue delivering cheap, renewable power to a country that is actively harming Canadian economic interests.
Electricity transmission between Canada and the U.S. operates through high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnections that allow for power to be sent across long distances with minimal loss. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) oversees the bulk power system, ensuring stability between Canada, the U.S., and parts of Mexico. If a province were to shut down its exports, grid operators in affected regions would have to buy power on the spot market, which could lead to a sudden and dramatic price surge. In extreme cases, utilities would have to ration power, leading to rolling blackouts or emergency measures that could disrupt businesses, hospitals, and essential services.
This dependence on Canadian power is a reflection of the U.S.’s fragmented and aging energy infrastructure, where some regions still struggle with outdated grids and limited domestic capacity. The irony is that Canada supplies some of the cleanest electricity available, with hydroelectric power making up the vast majority of its exports. If American utilities are forced to replace this supply with fossil fuels, not only will consumers pay more, but emissions will rise as well.
The Trump Tariffs have already strained relations between the two countries, but an electricity crisis would bring those tensions to a boiling point. If Canada turned off the lights, the U.S. would be left scrambling—not just to keep the power on but to reassess its entire approach to energy security. The question is whether Washington will recognize the value of its northern neighbor before it’s too late.
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