This Is Likely the Final Election for Jagmeet Singh as Federal NDP Leader

It may not happen today, but barring a political miracle, Jagmeet Singh’s tenure as leader of the federal NDP is reaching its inevitable conclusion. The writing is already on the wall. Polling numbers have remained stubbornly low for years. The party is locked in fourth place nationally, and despite Singh’s visibility and charisma, he has not managed to reverse the party’s long decline since the heights of the Jack Layton era.

Under Singh’s leadership, the NDP has lost ground while its rivals have surged or consolidated their base. The Conservatives are preparing to form government. The Liberals remain a national force despite recent struggles. Even the Bloc Québécois—despite only running candidates in Quebec—now holds more seats than the NDP. That stings. It underscores just how marginalized the NDP has become, particularly on the national stage.

This will be Singh’s third federal election as leader. And while final candidate slates and local races are still taking shape, the party’s chances of forming government are nonexistent. There’s no indication they will significantly grow their seat count on election day. In fact, the very real danger is that they could lose more ground. The Liberals and Conservatives are the only parties with the fundraising muscle to mount full, coast-to-coast campaigns. The NDP isn’t in that league—financially or organizationally.

Singh’s appeal once seemed like it might spark a generational breakthrough. When he became the first person of a visible minority background to lead a major federal party, it was a historic moment. His polished social media presence, fashion-forward persona, and progressive platform all promised something fresh. Some Canadians believed—perhaps briefly—that he could build on Layton’s momentum and bring the NDP into a new golden era. But that promise never materialized. Not in seat count. Not in influence.

Yes, the NDP has wielded some clout during the Liberal minority years, backing the Trudeau government in exchange for policy concessions. But this has been more the politics of survival than a bold exercise of power. Singh has kept the Liberals afloat, but has not extracted the kind of transformative gains that would justify his party’s enabling role. At best, he’s been a steady manager. At worst, he’s been relegated to a footnote while others set the national agenda.

The harsh truth is that Singh has failed to restore the NDP to its Jack Layton-era status as a credible contender for power. That has always been the benchmark—and he hasn’t met it. Not close. His leadership will likely be remembered for keeping the lights on rather than charting a bold new course. And as party members look toward the next campaign and beyond, they’ll be asking a hard question: if not now, when?

If Singh can’t lift the party this time—and all signs suggest he can’t—then new leadership will almost certainly emerge. From where, exactly, remains unclear. But the NDP can’t afford to linger in limbo. It either rebuilds now or resigns itself to irrelevance.

Jagmeet Singh may have started with promise. But promise isn’t power. The NDP needs a leader who can do more than hold the line. It needs someone who can win. And Singh has had his shot.