Carney’s “Paused” Campaign Over Trump Tariffs Draws Scrutiny as Conservatives Surge Ahead

Prime Minister Mark Carney is back in Ottawa to address the latest wave of tariffs levied by Donald Trump’s administration, in what his team is framing as a “pause” in the federal election campaign. But let’s be clear: campaigns don’t actually pause. They shift, they adapt, they reframe — but the machine never stops. And while Carney is now repositioning himself as the level-headed statesman ready to face the chaos of a Trump presidency, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is doing what wins elections: barnstorming the country, packing venues, and turning crowd energy into fundraising gold.

The optics are playing their part. Carney stepping off the trail to look prime ministerial, standing tall in the face of Trump’s economic bullying, is a move meant to reassure Canadians that he’s the adult in the room. But Canadians are not just watching the optics — they’re living the outcomes. Trump’s renewed tariffs have already begun to squeeze Canadian aluminum and steel producers again, while auto industry stakeholders are bracing for a repeat of the 2018 trade wars. So far, no exemptions have been secured. No concrete negotiation wins. No new deal.

Yet a new poll released by The Globe and Mail and La Presse suggests that the majority of Canadians believe Carney is the best candidate to negotiate with Trump. It’s a curious result considering that until recently, Carney hadn’t even engaged in a substantive dialogue with Trump — and the initial meeting between the two came well after Carney took office. Public opinion polling has always been a snapshot, not a forecast, and this snapshot appears to be rooted more in perception than performance.

The deeper irony here is Trump himself has reportedly said he finds Liberal governments easier to negotiate with, suggesting he views the Liberals as more pliable or less confrontational. For a prime minister who is trying to sell strength and resolve, that’s not exactly the kind of endorsement you want. If Trump sees the Liberals as a soft touch, then what does that say about Canada’s current negotiating posture?

What we’re witnessing is the clash between electoral narratives and geopolitical reality. Carney may be seen by poll respondents as the most capable negotiator, but in practice, he’s still scrambling to get in the room, let alone cut a deal. Meanwhile, Poilievre is tapping into a different kind of political currency — momentum. His crowds are massive, his campaign is disciplined, and his war chest is filling fast. If Carney can’t show results soon, the perception gap between polls and lived reality may close fast — and not in his favor.

Tariffs aren’t just talking points. They’re taxes. They disrupt supply chains, raise prices, cost jobs. And the longer Canada waits for a real negotiation strategy — not just the image of one — the more the electorate may begin to question whether their current leadership can really protect their economic interests.

You can dress up in the prime ministerial suit and fly back to Ottawa, but eventually, people expect more than theater. They expect results.