How Pakistan and Bangladesh Could Reshape the Regional Chessboard

The recent parliamentary elections in Bangladesh have triggered a profound shift in South Asian politics. The landslide victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), securing a two-thirds majority, has transformed the demand for the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina into a major diplomatic challenge for India. Even before forming the government, BNP leaders delivered a firm message to New Delhi, potentially complicating Narendra Modi’s efforts to stabilize bilateral relations.

The BNP’s call for Hasina’s extradition is not mere political rhetoric; it reflects a strategic attempt to convert domestic public pressure into a cornerstone of foreign policy. For large segments of Bangladeshi society—including students, youth groups, and supporters of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami—Hasina’s presence in India symbolizes political impunity. During her tenure, allegations of political persecution, state crackdowns, and suppression of dissent shaped the national narrative. The BNP leadership is acutely aware that addressing these grievances will bolster its domestic legitimacy while signaling a decisive break from the previous government’s policies.

Historically, Bangladesh has witnessed intense political polarization. BNP leader Tarique Rahman faced imprisonment and exile under Hasina’s rule, while former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia also endured legal challenges. The memory of these events amplifies public support for accountability measures, including extradition demands. Previously, even the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus raised the issue with India, though without tangible results. Continuous student protests, civil society activism, and media scrutiny have kept the issue alive, making it impossible for any incoming administration to ignore or dismiss public expectations.

From a diplomatic perspective, India faces a delicate balancing act. While positioning itself as a supporter of democracy in South Asia, hosting a political leader whom a major Bangladeshi party seeks to prosecute could invite legal scrutiny, international criticism, and reputational risks. Public opinion in Bangladesh, particularly on social media, already questions India’s commitment to democratic principles, highlighting the high diplomatic stakes for New Delhi.

The BNP’s victory also signals a potential recalibration of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Early indications suggest Dhaka may pivot toward China and Pakistan, building diversified strategic partnerships. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited Tarique Rahman to visit Pakistan, while the resumption of direct flights and discussions on trade cooperation point toward emerging regional realignments. For Islamabad, closer ties with Bangladesh could open economic and diplomatic avenues, particularly in trade, transport, energy, and investment cooperation, challenging India’s long-standing influence in Dhaka.

India-Bangladesh relations, which had relied heavily on the personal rapport between New Delhi and Hasina, now face uncertainty. Trade agreements, visa facilitation, and cultural exchanges—including cricket diplomacy—could experience friction. Simultaneously, the BNP’s assertive posture may encourage Bangladesh to negotiate on more equal terms with India, reshaping the balance of power in the Bay of Bengal region and signaling a new era of assertive regional diplomacy.

Moreover, the BNP’s approach could influence regional multilateral dynamics. If Bangladesh seeks support from China or engages with Pakistan in strategic forums, India’s dominance in regional institutions such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) could be challenged. The geopolitical landscape may increasingly resemble a three-way contest among India, Pakistan, and China, with Bangladesh playing a pivotal balancing role and potentially serving as a regional mediator or counterweight.

Economically, these developments could affect regional connectivity projects, trade corridors, and investment flows. India has traditionally leveraged infrastructure and development initiatives to maintain influence in Bangladesh. A BNP-led government may seek to diversify these projects, including greater engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or Pakistani investments, potentially redefining South Asia’s economic map and creating alternative avenues for regional growth.

In essence, Bangladesh’s election outcome is not merely a domestic political event; it is a catalyst for broader regional transformation. Early signals from the BNP suggest a tougher foreign policy posture, a willingness to challenge India’s preferences, and openness to new strategic partners. For Pakistan, this is an opportunity to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties, while India faces the challenge of maintaining influence amid rising domestic and international pressures.

The central question moving forward is whether India and Bangladesh can navigate a new equilibrium through diplomacy or whether tensions will escalate, potentially reshaping alliances across South Asia. In the coming months, the interplay between domestic politics, historical grievances, and regional strategy will likely define the trajectory of South Asian geopolitics, with implications not just for trade and security, but also for broader stability in the Indo-Pacific.